The timing and amount of dividend payments made by over 30,000 listed companies globally in over 100 countries is forecast by buy side fund managers, private investors, sell side analysts, index structures, sell side traders and market makers, and information and analytics providers that specialise in dividend forecasting.
Forecasting methodologies may need to be tailored to the idiosyncrasies of specific countries and markets
Comprehensive coverage of companies’ historical dividend payments, their changing dividend policies
Forecasting methodologies should heed regulations on dividends, which vary between countries, corporate legal systems and accounting standards
Dividend forecasting accuracy can be measured by both the timing and amount of dividends, and API technology can be used to carry out trials and comparisons between providers.
Dividend forecasting solutions can be off the shelf or customised, often using API. Clients can simply receive the data on a low touch basis, or they may need a more high touch advisory service.
Forecasting Models
Equity analysts and specialist dividend forecasting services build various types of models, which use algorithms.
Algorithm development
Algorithms may start by codifying the process and analytics applied by a typical discretionary analyst. ULTUMUS divCAST’s partner, Woodseer, forecast dividends manually between 2011 and 2016, and this formed the foundation for building algorithms that now provide the base case forecasts, with human discretion entering the process mainly in special cases.
Predictive Analytics
Algorithms, models and discretionary manual analytics, are all designed to accurately predict the timing and amount of dividend payments.
Human analysis is essential to interpret and account for special events and factors that can lead to dividends being delayed, deferred, cut or cancelled. Analysts can also provide more background on the drivers behind forecasts. Regular forecasts and underlying analysis can feed into investment strategies taking long and short positions in equities, ETFs and associated options.
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